GE24: The Irish Right Facing Defeat from Vote Splitting

EXPLAINING VOTE SPLITTING

In a Single Transferable Vote system, you need a mixture of a high first preference and transfers to get elected. For most parties, they run a single candidate to maximise first preferences so that the rate of transfers is comfortably low enough for them to reach the quota.

To run more than one candidate in a constituency, you need a high enough first-preference vote share and a high level of internal transfers to justify it (Fine Gael, Fianna Fáil and sometimes Sinn Féin). Fine Gael is opting for a four-candidate strategy in five-seater Mayo because, in 2020, they won nearly 40% of first preferences in that county and two out of its four seats. There are no constituencies in the country where the total nationalist, anti-immigration vote is high enough to justify more than a single candidate in one constituency.

Vote splitting is considered a myth erroneously because it will be argued that a Single Transferable Vote remains a form of proportional representation and that even with two candidates, a high rate of transfers will compensate. 

There are several factors here:

1. No candidate has a 100% transfer rate to another candidate.
2. Many voters transfer to the establishment or populist left-wing opposition parties.
3. Some voters don’t transfer at all after their first preference.
4. Running more than two candidates means that even transfers split, killing momentum.

Nationalist, anti-immigration candidates are the least transfer-friendly constituency in the country, which is why any electoral strategy must place great emphasis on maximising first preferences. Only Aontú, non-aligned independents and to a lesser extent Independent Ireland transfer reasonably well to right-wing candidates.

EXAMPLES FROM JUNE 7th

CARLOW

In the District Electoral Area of Carlow, comprising the county town of Carlow and its surrounding areas, the four main anti-immigration parties–Ireland First, the National Party, the Irish Freedom Party, and the Irish People–each fielded a candidate. Combined, they would have received 7.5% of the vote or 601 first-preference votes, which would have placed them fourth ahead of the Independent Ireland candidate John Cassin and comfortably ahead of People Before Profit for the final seventh seat. 

Instead, they cannibalised their vote to shreds, the highest polling being the Irish People’s Rory Woods at 2.1%. When Orla Donohoe was eliminated, of her 140 transferable votes, 81 went to the other nationalist candidates but split between three candidates, with none receiving the momentum required to stay in the race. Rory Woods limped on to the twelfth count, eliminated at 381 transferable votes but well behind what he could have achieved. 

IRELAND SOUTH.

The most promising right-wing candidacy in the Euros was Derek Blighe’s respectable effort in the Ireland South constituency winning over 25,000 votes and 3.6% of first-preferences. However, the scale of the right-wing vote in that constituency was more than double that, standing at 54,459 votes or 7.9%, a tally that would have placed Blighe fourth ahead of Mick Wallace and in contention for a seat with favourable Independent Ireland and Aontú transfers to help keep him in the hunt.

BLANCHARDSTOWN-MULHUDDART.

Blanchardstown-Mulhuddart proved to be one of the first council seats in Ireland to be won by a “far-right” party in eighty years yet the margin of victory for the NP’s Patrick Quinlan was razor thin, largely because of two last-minute candidacies from Independent Suzanne Delaney and the Irish People’s Andy Heasman. 

Quinlan won 7.4% of first preferences, polling sixth narrowly behind Aontú and People Before Profit. Had Heasman and Delaney not run, he would have topped the poll comfortably with as high as 16% of first preferences, narrowly short of reaching the quota. In the end, he narrowly scraped home at the final count, not reaching the quota and just twenty votes ahead of Fine Gael’s Steve O’Reilly.

THE DUBLIN BAY NORTH DEBACLE.

Within a month of June 7th, the Dublin Northside neighbourhood of Coolock erupted into unrest as the Garda Public Order Unit came to blows with locals over the proposed Crown Paints IPAS centre. In a part of the capital already developing strong anti-immigration sentiment, the furore it generated opened up the distinct possibility of an anti-immigration TD being elected in the Dublin Bay North constituency. These hopes look set to be scuppered by arrogance, selfishness, ego, petty grievance and stupidity. 

As of writing this, there are five anti-immigration candidates competing for the same 10% of the vote in this constituency:

• Kevin Coyle, an Independent now part of the National Alliance, narrowly missed being elected in Artane-Whitehall LEA in local elections.
• Michael Burke, an Independent who narrowly missed election in Donaghmede LEA, and received 4.5% in Clontarf.
• Diarmuid Ó Conaráin, an Independent who ran as the Irish Freedom Party’s Dublin candidate in the European elections.
• Paul Fitzsimons, the candidate for the Irish Freedom Party, won 5% in the Ongar LEA in Fingal County Council.
• Brian Garrigan, the independent candidate, ran in North Inner City LEA, coming second to last.

They must not resign themselves to this status quo. Time is of the essence as a November election looms. There must be some resolution. One proposal would be to hold a fair, impartial caucus among members of “Coolock Says No” and other like-minded groupings in the constituency and have rounds of voting. In the first round, the candidate with the least first preferences is eliminated and their second preferences are transferred, continuing until a candidate reaches over 50% of the total vote. 

Although such an arrangement could not be binding, it would show a clear preference for particular candidates over others and exert pressure on those less popular to remove their candidacy.

Conclusion

• When two candidates who agree on 90% of things run for the same seat, their greatest foes are each other because they compete for 90% of the same vote.
• The petty chieftain syndrome is a disease that will destroy any effort for an Irish right-wing to build itself up on a national level.
• By splitting the vote, the perennial candidate makes himself a greater block to RW nationalism in Ireland than any lefty NGO, RTÉ, the mainstream media, the established parties etc and should be treated therefore as such.
• It is high time for candidates who have failed decisively at every attempt to let those who have succeeded or who can succeed where they have failed to take the reins.
• Anyone who puts themselves forward for public office and puts in the effort to campaign deserves respect but in the final analysis, the mark of a good candidate is one that can win.
• The general election represents a golden opportunity for an Irish right wing to unify under a coherent political coalition at last and it must not be squandered. Ireland is the last major country in Western Europe without a right-wing nationalist opposition represented in its parliament and a TD elected in Dáil Éireann will finally break that curse.
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